The Calm Before the Storm

  • by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Gregory F. Treverton
  • Narrated by Kevin Stillwell
  • 0 hrs and 27 mins
  • Periodical

Publisher's Summary

Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful

Fine Taleb, but repeats some themes in other books

If you are widely read in Taleb's work, there are few surprises here. I pretty avidly snap up whatever he writes, but I had seen such things as his praise of city-states elsewhere. There seems a slight advance in his mapping of fragilities on a wider scale, compared with his prior works.
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- Phil O.

needs to be improved

too brief to be true..
And most importantly,Taleb seems to forget to add the 'main element' to the equation of antifragility....
which is also the centeral idea of 'fololed by randomness':
The luck.
Aut of domain dependance I guess...
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- Hakan

Book Details

  • Release Date: 01-16-2015
  • Publisher: Foreign Affairs