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In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
Customer ReviewsMost Helpful
By Marcus Bircher on 02-09-18
Great insights on improving decision making
Found out about this book via Michael Mauboussin discussing it on twitter - a highly credible source on decision making material - and the book did not disappoint.
'Think like a bettor. Think less about whether we are confident or not and more about how confident we are.'
Few key concepts that I think this book nailed:
Importance of accurate outcome analysis rather than 'resulting' and drawing too tight of a relationship between outcome quality and decision quality in a very uncertain world in which almost everything is a result of a combination of both luck and skill.
Biases she explains greatly - motivated reasoning, hindsight bias, self serving bias, internal conflicts of interest, knowing outcome when analyzing decision, temporal discounting + more.
Making decisions via explicit bets - thinking through wanna bet lens to better recognize there is always a level of uncertainty. Leads to tempering our statements as we stop to quantify the level of risk in our statements/beliefs which ultimately leads us closer to the truth.
Short term vs long term thinking - overestimating impact of momentary events on our happiness leads to irrational and emotional thinking which can degrade the quality of our bets and increase chance of bad outcome. Love the insight on the importance of this concept as she touches on temporal discounting, emotional decision making, and importance of accessing our past and future selves to put in the moment events in better perspective.
15 of 15 people found this review helpful
By Steven on 02-22-18
Want to bet you will enjoy this book.
Would you listen to Thinking in Bets again? Why?
Yes, because I want to hear the many ideas and suggestions by Ms. Duke I missed the first time.
What did you like best about this story?
Ms. Duke takes complex areas of behavior science, decision making processes, and the pursuit of truth and couples those principles of sciences to the methods used by a professional poker player.
What about Annie Duke’s performance did you like?
Calm, upbeat, friendly narration.
Did you have an extreme reaction to this book? Did it make you laugh or cry?
I immediately locked into the theme of the book because of my experience as a professional and an amateur card player.
10 of 10 people found this review helpful
Customer ReviewsMost Helpful
By Kindle Customer on 04-16-18
Actionable advice between some awkward padding
Thinking in Bets contains a multitude of actionable advice with which to make real changes to the ways we think about decisions and future planning. It makes very clear the benefits to be gained from acknowledging the way your mind works, through a comprehensive review of several concepts within the fields of behavioural psychology and decision economics. By simply taking the view of life as a game of poker, decisions can be made in more robust, rational, and healthy ways. Between the many useful pointers however there were a few areas where the same points were repeated or longer was spent on a particular topic than perhaps was necessary for concision. This detracted slightly from an otherwise very useful book. Recommended for those looking for useful ways to restructure the way we think about decisions
1 of 1 people found this review helpful
By ShopMyStyle on 04-24-18
loved it...going listen again and recommend...good for any strategy or people who want better outcomes