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Found out about this book via Michael Mauboussin discussing it on twitter - a highly credible source on decision making material - and the book did not disappoint.
'Think like a bettor. Think less about whether we are confident or not and more about how confident we are.'
Few key concepts that I think this book nailed:
Importance of accurate outcome analysis rather than 'resulting' and drawing too tight of a relationship between outcome quality and decision quality in a very uncertain world in which almost everything is a result of a combination of both luck and skill.
Biases she explains greatly - motivated reasoning, hindsight bias, self serving bias, internal conflicts of interest, knowing outcome when analyzing decision, temporal discounting + more.
Making decisions via explicit bets - thinking through wanna bet lens to better recognize there is always a level of uncertainty. Leads to tempering our statements as we stop to quantify the level of risk in our statements/beliefs which ultimately leads us closer to the truth.
Short term vs long term thinking - overestimating impact of momentary events on our happiness leads to irrational and emotional thinking which can degrade the quality of our bets and increase chance of bad outcome. Love the insight on the importance of this concept as she touches on temporal discounting, emotional decision making, and importance of accessing our past and future selves to put in the moment events in better perspective.
10 of 10 people found this review helpful
Would you listen to Thinking in Bets again? Why?
Yes, because I want to hear the many ideas and suggestions by Ms. Duke I missed the first time.
What did you like best about this story?
Ms. Duke takes complex areas of behavior science, decision making processes, and the pursuit of truth and couples those principles of sciences to the methods used by a professional poker player.
What about Annie Duke’s performance did you like?
Calm, upbeat, friendly narration.
Did you have an extreme reaction to this book? Did it make you laugh or cry?
I immediately locked into the theme of the book because of my experience as a professional and an amateur card player.
7 of 7 people found this review helpful
I downloaded Thinking in Bets expecting to listen to an interesting take on decision making in the personal and professional world from the perspective of a high stakes poker player. If you’re thinking the same let me save you seven hours and an Audible credit.
Uncertainty is a thing.
Sometimes things work out.
Sometimes things don’t work out.
Complete and utter bilge. Avoid at all costs.
1 of 1 people found this review helpful
Thinking in Bets contains a multitude of actionable advice with which to make real changes to the ways we think about decisions and future planning. It makes very clear the benefits to be gained from acknowledging the way your mind works, through a comprehensive review of several concepts within the fields of behavioural psychology and decision economics. By simply taking the view of life as a game of poker, decisions can be made in more robust, rational, and healthy ways. Between the many useful pointers however there were a few areas where the same points were repeated or longer was spent on a particular topic than perhaps was necessary for concision. This detracted slightly from an otherwise very useful book. Recommended for those looking for useful ways to restructure the way we think about decisions