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Is there anything you would change about this book?
Self-love is much easier if you pretend that your past failings, um, never happened. Remember Dow 40,000? Just Google HD to find out how accurate he has been. Dent is a pure salesman. Nothing wrong with that, just don't confuse him with someone who can accurately predict the future. That being said, I agree with much of what Dent says in this book. Based purely on the massive amount of public and private debt we are heading for a worldwide, systemic shake-out. Get out of the market? Yes. Position yourself in cash? Agree. Avoid gold like the plague? (Dent predicted gold at $250 by 2011 I believe). Dent has a simplistic, binary view of gold. Inflation=gold goes up. Deflation=gold crashes. Gold is also a hedge against instability and crises of confidence. And recently it has performed well in deflationary cycles. Also, the gold price is based largely on the paper price. If we reach a point where people/institutions start demanding delivery in large enough numbers I'm betting the the paper and physical markets will decouple. Gold is the ultimate bet against the Fed/IMF/Goldman Sachs system. Goldman Sachs knows this and has been buying physical gold. How about buy government/corporate bonds? I just feel that Dent is wrong on this but I have no data to back it up. Also, Dent is basically a demographics guy. Confusingly, he waits until chapter 13 to tell you that, by the way, he and he alone believes that the baby boom generation began around 1931 and not 1945. And most of his predictions are based on the fact the millennials don't exist in large enough numbers to take over the consumption duties of the BBs. But he never even addresses, or mentions, Gen X. Very odd. Just remember: Harry Dent can remain irrational much longer that you can remain liquid.
26 of 26 people found this review helpful
I think some of these cycles listed make a lot of sense, and the case about Japan is living proof that predictable cycles exist. What I don't agree with though is the sun cycle correlation. I think the author is reaching with that one. It brings up the famous quote "causation or correlation". I see lots of talk on correlation but if the author can't explain causation (cough. Sunspots) then he is wasting my time.
6 of 6 people found this review helpful
Great introduction to cycles of wealth and the changes ahead for the world post next crash.
0 of 1 people found this review helpful
Great listen interesting take on economics, great stuff. Hope he is wrong about the gold but!!
The number of charts and date ranges referred to make some parts a little difficult to follow. Otherwise a real eye opener.